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Posts archive for: November, 2009
  • JFK, Obama and history

    If John F Kennedy's ghost is wandering around the White House, he must be smiling at the ongoing debate about a possible troop surge in Afghanistan.History has a weird way of repeating itself.

    In 1961, Kennedy was involved in a debate about South Vietnam. The United States was determined to prevent a Communist takeover of its client regime. The President,Ngo Dinh Diem was an American puppet who relied on Washington's support.His regime lacked popular ,especially in the countryside, and corruption was rife. He was also at war with the Viet Cong, which was a guerilla army formed in South Vietnam to overthrow him.

    Kennedy had a problem,as he recognised Diem's faults, but he also had to support him. More troops(advisers) were sent from the United States, which meant that the Americans' role increased in an undeclared war. The more troops you send, the more you look like a colonial power or an army of occupation. The more troops you send, the more chance that they will get shot at or worse.You then end up with more casualties.You invest so much politically and militarily, that you cannot abandon your client.You are trapped.

    Does any of this sound familiar?The statements made in the early 1960s could easily have been made today.If you replace Communism with the word terrorism, then all the speeches sound just the same as the ones we hear about Afghanistan.Just replace the Viet Cong with the word the Taleban/ Al Qaeda.Hamid Karzai is a dead ringer, historically, for Diem.

    Kennedy's Administration was divided over South Vietnam in the same way that Barack Obama's is. Do you send more troops or do you walk away?You have a national leader who is surrounded by corruption and who lacks popular support.The paralells are scary.

    By 1963, Kennedy gave the nod to the South Vietnamese generals to overthrow Diem.The rest as we say,is history.

    Let's hope that Afghanistan does not prove to be Obama's Vietnam.

  • Is Barack Obama up to the job?

    If you are over 35,you may recall that there was once a US President called Jimmy Carter. He was a former Governor from Georgia who defeated Gerald Ford in 1976. Jimmy Carter's appeal was that he was a Christian, he was a fresh face and he seemed too good to be true. Jimmy Carter was one of the most intelligent men ever to be elected to the Presidency.The only problem is, he was an awful President.

    I bring this up because I'm wondering if Barack Obama is going the same way.The world needs American leadership now more than ever. Yet so far, we are still waiting for action. We need to see movement with the Middle East. The Palestinians need to believe that their aspirations will be met, that one day they will have a state to call their own. In conjunction with that, Israel needs to be re assured that her security is guaranteed. Only the United States can kick start this peace process. If that means putting presssure on Israel to stop building settlements , then so be it.We need America to wade in, especially as George Bush was never bothered about peace in the Middle East.

    The West is still waiting for Obama to make a decision about further troops as requested by General Stanley McChrystal. The request was made ages ago, and yet we are still waiting. The Dutch, the Canadians and of course, the British are all kept in limbo. The worst thing for the NATO alliance is loss of faith in American leadership. This happened to Jimmy Carter in the 1978, when he dithered about the Neutron Bomb. West Germany's Chancellor Helmut Schmidt lost all belief in Carter.

    George Bush left Obama with such a mess, from Iraq to Guantanamo Bay. It's amazing that Obama can sleep at night. After all the euphoria has died down ffrom last year's election, we need to know that Barack Obama can fill the chair in the Oval Office.

    I am praying that he is the real deal, and not Carter Mark 2.

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